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Friday, February 2, 2018

Groundhog Day 2018: Groundhogs, winter, and narcissists

Six more weeks of winter...?


The "official" Groundhog Day rodent, good old Punxatawney Phil from Pennsylvania, may see his shadow later this morning, thus predicting six more weeks of winter.. or.. he won't!  And we'll have an early spring!

The prominent weather forecasters are predicting snow, cold.. and shadows tomorrow morning, Friday, February 2nd, in Pennsylvania.  That should mean that Phil won't see his shadow.. and we'll have an early spring?  Yeah, sure.  I'll believe it when I see it.

It seems that Phil usually does see his shadow and we get those six more weeks of winter.  Can you remember when he didn't?  (I had to look it up.. I was surprised to find that the various groundhogs actually HAVE forecast an early spring.)
Very cute book about Groundhog's Day for the wee ones.  Click on the link for more info.  



You may wish to check out the account of Groundhog Day on Wikipedia... There is much history about the day that I didn't know.

Several rodents that are coaxed out of their holes in various places in the United States and abroad.  There's a lot of spectacle, but not a lot of real prediction.

As for "accuracy", Wikipedia reports:    
Punxsutawney Phil's statistics are kept by the Pennsylvania’s Groundhog Club which cares for the animal. Phil has predicted 103 forecasts for winter and just 17 for an early spring.[51] As it turns out, Phil’s predictions have been recorded as only 39% accurate according to Stormfax Almanac’s data. It seems as though referring to the city’s official weather services to determine the seasonal changes may be more reliable.[51] Other poor results from analysis are reported by the Farmer's Almanac as "exactly 50 percent" accuracy,[52] and The National Geographic Society reporting only 28% success.[53] But a Middlebury College team found that a long-term analysis of temperature high/low predictions were 70% accurate, although when the groundhog predicted early spring it was usually wrong.[54]


So.... Pay no attention to the oversized rat in his hole on February 2nd.  We usually have 6 more weeks of winter.

Groundhog Day the Movie and Self-absorbed Narcissists

One of the most enjoyable (and warmest) Groundhog Day traditions is the annual watching of the 1993 movie starring Bill Murray and Andie MacDowell.  Isn't it everybody's dream that the self-absorbed narcissists that clutter our lives (the Bill Murray character for the few who have never seen this movie) might be forced to spend years, decades, eternity even.. confronting their ---- unpleasant selves?  Realizing that not everybody thinks they are as wonderful as they think they are?  Forced to "fix" themselves until they wake up as redeemed people.  Ah, yes, the joys of fantasy.  But have a Groundhog Day-watching party for one or two or more.. and, if you dare, invite the narcissists in your life.  (And if you've been invited to dozens of Groundhog Day-watching parties over the years, you might ask yourself if your friends and coworkers are trying to tell you something.)  
http://amzn.to/2BNKzlv
The Blu-Ray 15th anniversary edition.. (Reg DVD available.)  Click HERE for more info.


If you are interested in buying Groundhog Day, you might want to buy a Bill Murray box set like THIS ONE with Stripes (Extended Cut), Ghostbusters, and Groundhog Day


Celebrating the Day

It may be a bit too late to plan a Groundhog's Day Party this year, 2018, but next year Groundhog's Day is on a Saturday morning, the day before the Super Bowl.  You may want to blow off the whole weekend with various celebrations.  As Groundhog's Day has its origins in Germany, you may want to invite a few friends over Friday night, drink German beer all night long, watch the Groundhog Day movie, and then watch the celebration from Pennsylvania.  Then go to bed. 

Or just get up early on Saturday morning, watch the celebration, eat breakfast while watching the movie, and then go back to bed. 

Whatever.  You decide.  Just.. have fun!




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